fanfeudThe mathematics of games of chance

Every edge figure on this desk is derived from the stated rules of the game, not from any operator.

The edge board

Eleven classic wagers, grouped by game family. Each row prints what the wager pays, the real odds against it, and the share of every unit staked that the rules retain.

Wheel games

Wheel wagers, where the pocket count and a fixed thirty-five to one payout decide the whole figure
WagerPaysTrue odds againstHouse edge
Single number, single-zero wheel35 to 136 to 12.70%
Even-money bet, single-zero wheel1 to 119 to 182.70%
Single number, double-zero wheel35 to 137 to 15.26%
Five-number line, double-zero wheel6 to 133 to 57.89%

Dice games

Dice wagers, all of them rearrangements of the same thirty-six outcomes, with edges spanning ten to one
WagerPaysTrue odds againstHouse edge
Pass line1 to 1251 to 2441.41%
Free odds behind an established pointtrue oddstrue odds0.00%
Place bet on the six7 to 66 to 51.52%
Any seven, one roll4 to 15 to 116.67%

Draw games

Draw wagers, where the top prize is a share of a pool rather than a fixed payout, so no single percentage applies
WagerPaysTrue odds againstHouse edge
Six numbers from forty-nine, jackpot lineshare of a prize pool1 in 13,983,816set by the pool, not by a fixed payout
Five numbers from fifty, jackpot lineshare of a prize pool1 in 2,118,760set by the pool, not by a fixed payout

Machine games

Machine wagers, where the combination count is internal and the return is set by the paytable and the weighting
WagerPaysTrue odds againstHouse edge
Three reels, sixty-four virtual stops each, top lineset by the paytable1 in 262,144set by the paytable and the weighting
Working, the first row of the boardsingle number on a 37-pocket wheel, paid 35 to 1expected value = (1/37 x 35) + (36/37 x -1)= (35 - 36) / 37 = -1/37 = -0.02703house edge = 2.70% of every unit staked

Every percentage above is arithmetic from the payout and the pocket, dice or ball count printed in the same row. No operator is named and no offer is carried; the derivations are on the topic pages.

From the derivation desk

Three lead pieces working the board figures out in full.

Wheel and dice

Two layouts, two numbers, one method

A wheel is the cleanest game to analyse because its sample space is printed on it. Thirty-seven pockets paid at thirty-five to one give 2.70 per cent; adding a second zero and changing nothing else gives 5.26 per cent. The same page shows why a split, a column and an even-money bet on the same wheel all return the identical figure.

Read the full derivation

Cards

The exception: trials that remember

A wheel resets every spin. A deck does not, because each card dealt changes what remains. That single structural difference is the reason some card games admit skill, and the reason multiple decks, deep cuts and continuous shufflers exist at all.

Read the full derivation

What the edge costs over volume

One unit staked per round, one thousand rounds, ranked by edge. The percentages are small; the multiplier is not.

Expected loss in units after one thousand rounds of one unit each, computed as edge multiplied by rounds
WagerHouse edgeExpected loss after 1,000 rounds
Any seven, one roll16.67%166.67
Five-number line, double-zero wheel7.89%78.95
Single number, double-zero wheel5.26%52.63
Any bet on a single-zero wheel2.70%27.03
Place bet on the six1.52%15.15
Pass line1.41%14.14
Free odds behind a point0.00%0.00
Working, one row of the tableedge on any bet on a 37-pocket wheel = 0.027027rounds = 1,000, stake per round = 1 unitexpected loss = 0.027027 x 1,000 = 27.03 units

The table is expectation only. A single thousand-round run swings widely around these figures, and the law of large numbers page shows how quickly the swing stops mattering.

The rest of the desk

Longer pieces on where these games came from, how they are built, and how they came to be regulated.

Where one in nearly fourteen million comes from, why a rollover changes the arithmetic, and how public draws grew out of private ones.
Lots and knucklebones, the correspondence that turned a dispute over an unfinished game into probability, and the arrival of fixed odds.
Physical randomness in wheels and dice against algorithmic generators, seeding, period length and commitment schemes.
Virtual reels, weighting and paytables, and why the symbols you can see are not the probabilities the machine is using.
Why a fixed percentage that looks trivial in one round becomes the dominant term over thousands of them.
The move from blanket prohibition to licensing, technical standards, independent testing and disclosure of return figures.
Forty terms used across the desk, each defined in plain language and cross-referenced to the page that works it out.